Phân tích thị trường ngũ cốc

Phân tích thị trường ngũ cốc

Phân tích thị trường ngũ cốc Việt Nam và thế giới

  1. Ngũ cốc là gì?

Ngũ cốc nôm na là 5 loại hạt (Lúa, mè, nếp, tẻ, các loại đậu) có thể ăn được và mang giá trị dinh dưỡng cao. Về sau này, ngũ cốc được hiểu là tất cả các loại cây có hạt dùng làm lương thực (như lúa mì, yến mạch, đại mạch…).

Hiểu được giá trị to lớn mà ngũ cốc mang đến. Do đó, thị trường ngũ cốc tại nước ta đã và đang mở rộng quy mô hơn bao giờ hết.

Hãy cùng kinhdoanhhanghoa.com (giacatloi.vn) phân tích thị trường ngũ cốc tại Việt Nam và Thế giới hiện nay.

Thị trường ngũ cốc
Thị trường ngũ cốc
  1. Thị trường ngũ cốc Việt Nam

Việt Nam được bạn bè thế giới biết đến là một nước có truyền thống nông nghiệp mạnh mẽ và lâu đời bậc nhất. Với vị trí đứng thứ 2 trong xuất khẩu lúa gạo chỉ sau Thái Lan, lúa gạo là loại ngũ cốc được sử dụng chính trong các bữa ăn ở Việt Nam.

Tuy nhiên, sau khi nhận thấy được nguồn dinh dưỡng dồi dào và an toàn từ các loại ngũ cốc khác như: các loại đậu, yến mạnh, mè đen,… mang lại thì thị trường ngũ cốc ở Việt Nam bắt đầu có sự chuyển biến mạnh mẽ. Từ đó thị trường ngũ cốc Việt Nam bắt đầu đẩy mạnh việc sản xuất và nhập khẩu các loại ngũ cốc.

Sản xuất ngũ cốc trong nước không đủ cung cấp cho thị trường Việt Nam, do đó nhập khẩu đang chiếm phần lớn. Thị trường ngũ cốc Việt Nam nhập khẩu từ nhiều nước khác nhau như: Nga, Asutralia, Đài Loan, Hàn Quốc,… mang lại sự lựa chọn đa dạng cho người tiêu dùng.

Thị trường ngũ cốc Việt Nam
Thị trường ngũ cốc Việt Nam
  1. Thị trường ngũ cốc Thế giới

  • Giá đậu nành kỳ hạn tháng 11 cuối kỳ phiên giao dịch ngày 12/09 tăng 29,0 cent, ở mức 895,50 cent/bushel, giảm 0,50 cent so với mức cao nhất và tăng 26,50 cent so với mức thấp nhất. Giá đậu nành kỳ hạn tháng 01/2020 chốt phiên tăng 28,50 cent, ở mức 909,0 cent/bushel, tăng 25,50 cent so với mức thấp nhất và giảm 0,25 cent so với mức cao nhất.
  • Giá khô dầu đậu nành kỳ hạn tháng 10 chốt phiên tăng 6,60 usd, ở mức 297,60 usd/short tấn, giảm 0,10 usd với mức cao nhất và tăng 6,20 usd so với mức thấp nhất.
  • Giá dầu đậu nành kỳ hạn tháng 10 chốt phiên tăng 0,36 cent, ở mức 29,01 cent/pound, giảm 0,14 cent so với mức cao nhất và tăng 0,37 cent so với mức thấp nhất.

Bộ NN Mỹ cho biết sản lượng đậu nành dự kiến là 98,79 triệu tấn trong năm nay, với năng suất trung bình quốc gia là 3,22 tấn/ha, gần với ước tính trung bình trước báo cáo, giảm 1,28 triệu tấn sản lượng và 0,04 tấn/ ha năng suất so với tháng trước.

Thị trường ngũ cốc thế giới
Thị trường ngũ cốc thế giới

Bắp
Sản lượng bắp năm 2019-2020 được dự báo giảm 2,6 triệu tấn so với ước tính của tháng trước, xuống còn 350,51 triệu tấn, giảm từ 365,77 triệu tấn trong năm 2018-2019. Năng suất vẫn cao hơn dự đoán là 10,56 tấn/ ha, giảm từ 10,64 tấn/ ha ước tính trong tháng 08.

Lúa mì

Dự báo sản lượng lúa mì Mỹ ở mức 53,89 triệu tấn và năng suất trung bình ở mức 3,47 tấn/ ha. Tồn kho cuối kỳ lúa mì vụ mới của Mỹ ở mức 27,6 triệu tấn, như dự đoán của các nhà phân tích trước báo cáo. Bộ NN Mỹ cũng giữ nguyên lượng sử dụng trong nước và nhu cầu so với báo cáo tháng 08.

Tính trên toàn cầu, tồn trữ lúa mì vụ cũ (2018-2019) ước tính là 277,24 triệu tấn, giảm nhẹ so với ước tính của tháng 8 là 275,5 triệu tấn, nhưng trong mức dự báo trước báo cáo.

Tồn trữ cuối kỳ thế giới vụ mùa mới ở mức 286,51 triệu tấn, trong kỳ vọng trước báo cáo. Mặc dù sản lượng của Úc giảm 2 triệu tấn và tình trạng hạn hán đang kéo dài tới năm thứ 2 nhưng con số này vẫn được xem là mức tồn kho cao kỷ lục, trong đó Trung Quốc chiếm 51%.

Trong tuần kết thúc ngày 05/09, Bộ NN Mỹ báo cáo lúa mì xuất khẩu tăng 610.900 tấn, giao hàng trong năm kinh doanh 2019-20 và giảm 8.200 tấn cho giao hàng năm kinh doanh 2020-21. Lượng xếp hàng xuất khẩu tuần qua đạt 0,41 triệu tấn, thấp hơn mức 0,51 triệu tấn cần thiết trong tuần để đạt được mức xuất khẩu ước tính của Bộ NN Mỹ là 26,54 triệu tấn cho năm 2019-20. Tổng lượng lúa mì xuất bán trong năm 2019-20 đạt 12,0 triệu tấn, tăng 23% so với cách đây 01 năm.

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