supply demand - lý thuyết cung cầu

Bài 4: Supply Demand – Lý thuyết cung cầu, Kháng cự – Hỗ trợ

Supply Demand là gì?

Supply demand

Supply demand hay còn gọi là lý thuyết cung cầu. Đó là những vùng giá xảy ra tranh chấp giữa bên mua và bên bán. Khiến cho giá có thể tăng mạnh hoặc giảm mạnh.

Vùng Supply hay còn gọi là vùng cung, ở tại đây người bán chiếm nhiều hơn người mua khiến giá có thể đi xuống.

Vùng Demand hay còn gọi là vùng cầu, ở đây áp lực mua rất mạnh khiến cho giá được đẩy lên.

supply demand - vùng demand

Kháng cự – Hỗ trợ là gì?

Kháng cự và hỗ trợ là vùng giá mà tại vùng giá này nhà đầu tư kỳ vọng giá sẽ đảo chiều.

kháng cự

Tính chất:

  • Gặp ngưỡng kháng cự thì có khả năng đảo chiều từ xu hướng tăng sang giảm.
  • Gặp ngưỡng hỗ trợ thì có khả năng đảo chiều từ xu hướng giảm sang tăng.
  • Kháng cự và hỗ trợ ở trên khung thời gian lớn hơn thì có sức mạnh, có giá trị cứng hơn khung thời gian nhỏ.
  • Kháng cự và hỗ trợ chuyển đổi cho nhau: một ngưỡng kháng cự sau khi bị phá vỡ có thể thành ngưỡng hỗ trợ và ngược lại ngưỡng hỗ trợ sau khi bị phá vỡ trở thành ngưỡng kháng cự.
  • Mọi ngưỡng kháng cự hỗ trợ đều có thể bị phá vỡ. Kháng cự và hỗ trợ sinh ra là để kiểm tra tâm lý, kỳ vọng của nhà đầu tư ở hiện tại về tương lai. Nên việc kháng cự và hỗ trợ có thể bị phá vỡ hay không phụ thuộc vào tâm lý và cung cầu của thị trường.

Kháng cự chuyển thành hỗ trợ

Hỗ trợ chuyển thành kháng cự

Các loại kháng cự hỗ trợ thường gặp:

Kháng cự hỗ trợ Tĩnh (hình thành tại các vùng giá cố định)

  • Được hình thành bởi các vùng giá đỉnh đáy cũ.
  • Được hình thành bởi các mức giá tròn có ý nghĩa quan trong.
  • Được hình thành bởi các mực Fibonacci quan trọng (23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8…)

Kháng cự hỗ trợ động (thay đổi theo thời gian và giá thị trường)

  • Được hình thành bởi các đường xu hướng (Trendline)
  • Được hình thành bởi các chỉ báo như đường MA, mây Ichimoku, đường Bollinger band…

Để sử dụng hiệu quả vùng cung cầu cũng như kháng cự hỗ trợ ta nên sử dụng kết hợp với các mô hình nến nhật để tăng độ chính xác.

Lê Đức Vang – Chuyên viên phân tích kỹ thuật.

 

Bài viết liên quan:

Bài 1: Khái niệm, ý nghĩa của phân tích kỹ thuật trong đầu tư hàng hóa

Bài 2: Nến Nhật những mẫu nến cơ bản

Bài 3: Nến Nhật những mô hình nến đảo chiều

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